World War II was not completely over until 1945. In the European war, if time goes back, it is:

At the beginning of 1942, the German army failed to occupy the Soviet Union, and they finally began to be weak.

From 1940 to 1941, Germany bombed British territory for about a year.

The answer is in 1940, even earlier than the bombing. During the bombing, the British stock market had risen by 40% against the trend. By the end of World War II, the British stock market had risen by 160% from the bottom of the market.

When we are at the bottom of the market, most people do not believe it and leave the stock market at that time.

The rise and fall rules of the asset market are not based on what is happening at the moment, but on expectations of the future. The bottom often occurs at the most pessimistic moment of the future.

So when the market really reaches the bottom, the most common view is "I will wait until the situation is stable."

But the problem is that when everyone knows that the situation is stable, the best opportunities have passed.

We need to be more optimistic than most people to seize the opportunity at the bottom to accumulate future benefits.

However, it's better to be cautious in the short-term investment.

Many articles on the stock market like to use American stocks as research samples, but the United Kingdom and the United States are just survivors.

What inspired me more was the trend of the German stock market. During World War II, the German stock market was frozen for five years. After unsealing, the opening price fell sharply by 80%+.

It is better to be optimistic in the long run, because problems will always be solved eventually. Even if Germany is defeated in the war, the stock market still has a upward trend in the long term.

But it is better to be pessimistic in the short term, because this "long term" may be longer than we expected. Because unexpected changes always happen.

A little pessimism in the short term does not mean that we lose confidence in the market. Investing in the stock market is to invest in the national trend and the future development of society. If there is a crisis that is so serious that the stock market is completely destroyed, don't worry. Because even if you don't invest, you can't survive.

A little pessimism in the short term is to be prepared for accidents, so that you can live successfully until dawn.

Invest with idle money is the best way of money management. Even if it is frozen for a long time, it will not affect our existing quality of life.

If we look back from the 80% slump in the opening of the German stock market, what about the next three years? The market returned to a new high level, which means that it rose by more than 500%. By 1960, the German stock market had risen more than 30 times from the bottom.

In the short term, we can be more pessimistic than most people. Protect cash flow and keep margin of safety.

But in the long run, be more optimistic than most people. Continue to invest and never leave.

（Writer：Hoock）